Global Emissions Cuts in UNEP’s Lowest-Overshoot Pathway: 2030, 2035 and 2040

UNEP’s October 2026 report identifies global greenhouse-gas emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all relative to 2025, along its lowest-possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway. All three milestones from Key Messages, page 2, are shown. They are scenario requirements for annual global emissions at those dates, not observed reductions, cumulative emissions or national pledges. The pathway assumes stringent mitigation begins in 2025, limits peak warming around mid-century to 1.7–1.8°C with a 66% chance, and returns warming to or below 1.5°C by 2100 with a 50% chance. Large-scale permanent CO₂ removal is also required; emissions cuts alone do not guarantee that return. The chart does not imply the pathway is already being delivered. By comparison, full NDC implementation would cut emissions by 5–8% in 2030 and 11–15% in 2035 from the same 2025 baseline. These ranges are context, not invented point values in the chart. The October 14 report provides a current news hook; the three milestones are the complete honest scope.

Sources checked October 29, 2026. News and seasonal relevance do not establish rising search interest.