Global Warming by 2100 under Three Policy Scenarios: UNEP 2026

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 compares three conditional policy trajectories: current policies limit warming to 2.8°C by 2100 with a 66% chance; delivering all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and continuing similar efforts gives 2.6°C; meeting all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets gives 2.1°C. All three use the same 66% probability framing and baseline above pre-industrial temperatures, as stated on page 2 of the official Key Messages released October 14, 2026. These are model-based conditional warming limits, not observed temperatures, guaranteed outcomes or probabilities that the policies will be implemented. The current-policies trajectory continues warming after 2100. The other cases assume commitments are delivered; this chart does not assess feasibility. The separate lowest-possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway is omitted because its return to 1.5°C by 2100 uses a different probability, 50%, and its 1.7–1.8°C peak is a mid-century quantity. Three scenarios are the honest scope of these comparable headline values, not an invented top ten. The October report supplies a verified news hook.

Sources checked October 29, 2026. News and seasonal relevance do not establish rising search interest.